diablo 3 gold the Greece problem is more serious. So much of the crisis do not reform LWN

At present, the risk in a significant increase in the global economy, but on the whole a second recession is unlikely. In 2012, 2013, the global economy will face greater risks. Main problems in Europe 2012, 2013, the main issues are in the United States. 2012 European economic growth could be negative, this is a global economic situation than theA larger challenge. United States economic growth in 2012 is expected to be around 2%, but in 2013 may drop to zero or even negative growth. 　　We need to pay close attention, even if the world does not appear the second recession, we still need to prepare for a crisis. United States economic recovery with setbacks United States economy could maintain slow growth in the coming years, did not rule outMay 2013 entered recession. The global financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage crisis. Figure 1 shows the financial situation of the world's leading countries, problems of countries, such as Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and the United States. Almost all developed countries are likely to break out of the debt crisis and debt crises more vulnerable to outbreaks in public debt and fiscal deficit accounted for GDPCountries with higher specific gravity. United States economic recovery with setbacks is due to the nature of the crisis led to the balance sheet of the root causes of recessions, out of the process of the financial crisis is the process of gradually repair their balance sheets. An economy can usually be classified as Government, financial, other residents and enterprises in four departments. "Nature's balance sheet recession" refers to the economicEach major sector suffered a serious injury on the balance sheet, and after the recession ends, departments scrambling to repair their balance sheets and reduce leverage, unwilling to continue debt. Departments, including the enterprise is no longer with the goal of profit maximization, but rather to lower debt levels for critical tasks. Characterized by inadequate aggregate demand, traditional monetary policy effects is limited.United States to achieve economic recovery, enterprise that is relatively healthy balance sheet to support residents, Governments, financial institutions, three patches of the balance sheet, which will be a tortuous and protracted process. 　　United States economy is unlikely to be in 2012 and 2013, will be able to get better. United States economy faces a long deleveraging process, aggregate demand subdued. The United StatesIts high deficit, debt, restricting flexibility for fiscal policy, is not conducive to supporting economic development. Currently lack of significant new economic growth points. 　　Therefore, began to appear in the first quarter of 2011, the marked slowdown in economic growth, is a corollary to macroeconomic factors reflected on economic growth. At present, the United States residents gradually increasing deposits, BankGradually the deleveraging process, debt ratio decreased significantly, while the United States Government's balance sheet has expanded substantially. The so-called economic stimulus plan is in fact through the extent of the damage to an increase in Government balance sheet, to repair the balance sheet of the other three departments. United States will continue to bear the long-term pressure to reduce total debt. We did an initial calculations, ifComplex to healthier levels until 2018, which performed a one-term President under the ruling of the time to complete. Enterprise sector, United States business investment remains a key factor in driving economic recovery. But as companies hold large amounts of cash in the hands, but also to the unclear prospects for future economic growth is expected, so enterprises have plans to further increase investment, which the United StatesInhibition of some the country's economic growth process. If confidence is to increase investment, improving job market. Even if the United States experienced a century of crises, but United States enterprises profit is unexpectedly well, this has not happened before. We predict 2011 p 500 earnings realized 15% of positive growth, month was 2012, ChinaIn 2011, all a-share earnings growth may be 15% in 2012, only around 10%. The financial sector, has been effectively restored after the financial crisis on the balance sheet, risk-resistant ability. But because of the lack of corporate loan demand, resident and Enterprise deposits increasing United States commercial bank credit and savings gap increased, is not conducive toSustained economic recovery. 　　In addition, from the macro level, United States M2 increase the larger, but increasing the money supply does not cause inflation, because the corporate investment willingness is not strong, money multiplier fell, leading to failure of monetary transmission mechanism. The Government sector, United States Government debt and fiscal deficit will remain high over the next 10-year bonds will be about 6 trillion in the United StatesYuan. 　　The Obama administration's plan to cut the deficit in the next 10 years the total amount of approximately US $ 2.5 trillion, which could in the next 2 years on pulling down the GDP exceeds 2%. 　　In short, United States economy could maintain slow growth in the coming years, did not rule out 2013 into a recession. European debt crisis prolonged if Italy, andFrance further deterioration of the problem may be banking system crisis. Outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe stems from the differences between the countries is too large, and lack of effective policy coordination mechanisms among the countries. Euro-zone labor costs of serious Division, did not meet the conditions of optimum currency areas theory. Unemployment of the Member States are very different, you might need tenYears in order to achieve a new balance. These differences significant symbiosis between countries within the eurozone, on the importance of effective coordination mechanisms in policy, including fiscal transfers, but which is not be achieved under the present situation in Europe. When setting up the European Union at that time, Germany worried about excessive reliance on other countries than Germany, so intentionally made a tiny EU governments. Disposal of EU financial supportOnly 1% per cent of EU GDP, and these 1% of GDP but also poverty alleviation in Africa, for missions, large translation teams, and so on, so there are not enough funds for the financial transfer payment. The European Central Bank is not a conventional Bank, for this we need to deeply understand. When the design of the European Central Bank, try copying the Germany Central Bank models onlyStable currency and stable inflation. Now Germany largest economies, economic growth is the best, face the problem of inflation, and for the other countries concerned were facing problems of deflation. If you want to take care of Germany the interests, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, but taking care of other countries should cut interest rates. 　　So, policy coordination mechanisms in the euro zone is very difficult to resolve. European Bank to "European pigFive "has a huge exposure, tightening of funds, which recently received some attention. 　　If Italy, and France's problem from getting worse, risk is further increased, may be banking system crisis. If Germany pays now address the euro issue, there are three main disadvantages. The first is Germany pays too much. Second, lost the chance to reform,Italy after the second world war has been relying on devaluations, inflation, no real reforms, Portugal, and Spain, too, the Greece problem is more serious. So much of the crisis do not reform, if the missed opportunity of reform, the problem may be bigger. Third, if Germany now solved this problem, the euro to strengthen against the dollar would significantly, which can damageGermany benefits can also damage the euro-zone interests. If the eurozone collapse, there are three main disadvantages. First, Germany as the heart of the eurozone countries, indifference, the political cost is very large. Secondly, Germany withdrew from the eurozone, Mark's hands, in the short term may be 30% per cent against the dollar, so that Germany cannot afford. Third, the other EU countriesGermany irresponsible practices of hostility swtor power leveling, all countries are implementing protectionist, Germany's exports will be a great shock. Therefore, euro collapse or rely solely on Germany tide is unlikely to be a eurozone problem solving Germany's best option. What would be the end result? I think it will pump the bellows-like, back when the issue went to the edge of the cliff, And then States the problem themselves. 　　Therefore, the European debt crisis will become a persistent problem. 　　2012: China preparing for crisis even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging next year. The future, United States, Europe's two largest developed economies will be extremely loose monetary policy, so that the external environment willEmerging markets and China's economic influence what, this is a very worthy of our attention. In 2012 there will be some emerging market countries twin deficits. 2011 currency has problems in some emerging market countries, such as India and Korea national currency exchange rate depreciation cent in September 2011. If emerging market reshuffle, 2012Financial market risk higher than in 2011. 2011 events three exceeded expectations in financial markets. Overall, 2011 overseas hedge funds are not easy to make money, except those that sang the air State funds and other emerging markets. Why not make money? First, the oil market in 2011, there is a big adjustment, United States through regulatory measuresShrinking space for speculation in the oil market. Second diablo 3 gold, the gold market in 2011, squeezed out the water. Third, the currency market speculation the high Swiss franc and Yen also unsustainable. Of course, overseas also does anyone really believe that China's economy is a big problem. 　　This shows that the market is still not optimistic for 2012. Overall, I think the global economy 2012 yearMay not be a second recession. Compared to United States, Europe will face greater risks. Because of financial and political election-related reasons, United States 2013 will become more serious. Now markets to China's attention more and more, including some negative attention. 　　Therefore, even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging in the next two years. We need toStart preparing for the crisis.