129668631851093750_28Legitimate expectations of the a-share risk of systemic lupus killed fell hard again now, short just 6 trading days on the huzhi is back again 2,400 points. For now, the a-share environment deteriorated, peripheral areas: Portugal's credit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke downgraded debt contagion fears in Europe and the collapse of the major stock indexes continued this weekDomestic: declines in growth as exports and investment, the economic situation increasingly gloomy November HSBC PMI initial-only 48, again falling to below the dry line, and the highest in a 32-month low. Generally speaking, "the economy is in the real estate woes to a hard landing, still under policy tuning of a soft landing? "," Extent of the earnings downgrade "or"Impact of the European debt crisis" such risk had not been fully released, and policies to improve results of PK, mobility improvements will determine whether a-shares can stabilise above the 2,300-point. Internal and external difficulties actually warmer policy PK, was a warm wind blew the a-share market in the near future the policy level. Macro context, inflation gradually downward trend of uncertain, policy fine-tuning, Policy corner, the balance of economic policy began to "growth" is tilted; FR, Chairman of the SFC after he took office, first forcing bonus programme arrangements, especially at the time of IPO commitments is significant. Then launched six major initiatives to promote the stable and healthy development of capital markets, which dealt with to the higher earnings release, the delisting mechanism long inhibitedA-shares and healthy development of the core issues, if subsequent to further introduce rules, its effects than stock feat. Warm wind blowing with the policy, and fears in a down economy and the effects of European debt crisis intensified under the impact of a substantial reduction, in particular the European debt crisis deteriorating rapidly this week, Portugal's credit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke down, Europe and the stock market plunging for several days, with theShi, United States economy is in recession trend data show that United States recent 4 quarters of real GDP growth is 1.5%.
����Experience has shown that since 1948, this figure is lower than 2%, United States is in recession, a total of 11 times, without exception. At present, this wave of international capital markets tsunami has begun to affect the country. Data displayIn October, China's foreign exchange since December 2007 3 years of negative growth for the first time, showing outflow of foreign capital in China, the trade surplus narrowed, exports under pressure. Before the Mainland austerity policy remains in force, House cool led investment growth, especially HSBC November PMI initial value plunged to 48 this week, hit a 32-month lowMessages, indeed, have sparked a round of panic, foreign investment banks issued "economic hard landing in China" increases the risk of freedom, in time, everyone from the joy of easing shifted to concerns about the economic downturn.
����Stocks dip again success will depend on whether the economy to a soft landing. Qu Hongbin, Chief China Economist at HSBC thinks November manufacturing pMI initial decline reflected in the next month, industrial production growth is likely to slow further to 11%~12%. While new export orders is still flexible, but domestic demand cools, and weaker external demand began. Barclays Capital also believes that although this does not mean that China's industrial production in the coming months must be in a recession, but at least China economic downside risks were increasing. NomuraSecurities Chief China Economist Zhang Zhiwei even 2012 first-quarter GDP growth still to 8%! Chances of a hard landing low, credit to increase by more than the market consensus forecasts, the November official China PMI index to below 50 per cent to 49 per cent level. "China economic alerts
Diablo 3 Power Leveling, central banks have officially release not far away. ��Industry insiders expect, in a State of economic decline, European debt crisis will spread, the Chinese Government will once again face a "growth" challenge. Qu Hongbin, believed that the positive side is that as inflation falling faster than expected, will be reserved for the Government unveils a selective easing of more space, that should gradually push China into a soft landing trajectory. This week, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed to redirectIts institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate of 0.5% per cent, despite the Central Bank clarified that this is the recovery deposit rate is not reduced, but it's still being understood as the prelude of the Central Bank reduced reserve. In this regard, guotai Junan securities analysis, China's currency policy for multiple objectives such as growth, inflation and house prices. Four-quarter GDP is likely toIn 8.5%, the slowdown as the biggest risk, and in November will also fall in inflation to below 5%, in October the national average, it was the first y/y drop, this meant that monetary policy shift has become inevitable. First step is to monetary easing of monetary policy shift, marked by a 3 year Central ticket rates downward, from 1 year of central interest rate cut was confirmed,Future is likely to drop cutting interest rates.
����Into the second step is credit easing of monetary policy, lower interest rates to credit demand recovery, October credit per cent increase, or increase in bank credit lines. However, UBS Securities Chief Economist at UBS said that, as long as the international financial markets, or without a sudden collapse in export demand, China is likely to continue the current policy tuningOf the State. The future, China's main basis by controlling the money supply and credit lines to manage monetary policy, rather than adjusting interest rates.
����But if the depletion of foreign exchange inflows continue, the Central Bank may need to cut the deposit reserve ratio may even cut before the end of 2011. No matter how the Government will ease monetary policy, but policy certainly, the inflection point has been able to confirm,Taking into account the relationship between stock market and monetary policy, October of persistent concern of lending growth. Review of end of 2008 economic recovery experience, you can find credit is the most important indicator of monetary, credit and even economic decision. For example, in November 2008 compared how credit increased, followed in March 2009 the economy begins to recover. This year the economy sinceGrowth rate continued to drop, the background is also declining credit growth. Jianyin investment analysis of the macroeconomic Division Li Chongbin, does not appear a hard landing in China, a-shares will not fall below 2,300 points. October has begun per cent more in credit has increased, it is estimated that December's credit is expected to begin next year grew, because experience has shown that hot is often associated with monetary policyNew lax. In September 2008 continued outflow of hot money, how increase occurred November credit per cent last May 2010 continuing outflow of hot money
Diablo 3 Gold, appears in July increased by more than the same monetary easing and credit. So speculate that at end-December stock market building will be completed next year, is coming back, and GDP are generally lagged one quarter, it is estimated that GDP growth will be at the bottom of Ming dynastyYears in the second quarter. 20 years, the policies have been around the a-share market to, even after the State has decided to reduce the impact of policies on the stock market, policies are still around is the most important factor, and is also based on a policy corner of, this week's a-share markets to the peripheral market in the reign of brave talk. Technically, the market early in the near the bottom is notVolume tumbled, volumes have shrunk, fluctuations become narrower, shenchengzhi early this week to its lowest point distance less than 2% at the bottom, and huzhi, a long-term increase lifeline (history and 998 connector at the end of) the important support. Next, before shenchengzhi will fall below the end of huzhi can be stopped falling above the long-term rise in Lifeline, were current investors need to pay close attention to.
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